Summary：In July 2024, China's sugar imports surged to 420,000 tons, a 279.7% year-on-year surge, causing widespread concern. This trend has an important impact on the market and prices.
In the import data for the seven months of 2024, we can see that the volume of sugar imports shows significant fluctuations:
|
Month
|
Imports (10,000 tons)
|
|
Jan.
|
70
|
|
Feb.
|
49
|
|
Mar.
|
1
|
|
Apr.
|
5
|
|
May.
|
2
|
|
Jun.
|
3
|
|
Jul.
|
42
|
Key volatility data：
• February: Imports of 490,000 tons
• March: Plummeted to 10,000 tonnes
• April-June: not more than 50,000 tonnes per month
• July: surged to 420,000 tonnes
Key influencing factors：
• Fluctuations in international sugar prices
Since 2023, international sugar prices have continued to rise, increasing the cost of imports. This led to a drop in China's full-year sugar imports in 2023 to 3.97 million tonnes, down 24.7% year-on-year.
• Adjustment of import policy and trade mode
The surge in imports in July 2024 was partly attributable to changes in trade patterns. For example, of the 22,500 tons of white sugar in June, 16,500 tons were imported through import processing trade.
• Changes in the relationship between supply and demand in China
China's sugar consumption demand has grown steadily, especially in the face of insufficient supply of sugar produced in China, which has made the demand for imported sugar more urgent. Despite the decline in imports in 2023, 2024 still shows an upward trend, implying that the market potential is huge.
The impact of changes in the quantity of imported sugar in China on sugar prices:
•Supply-price relationship
The sudden increase in imports directly increases the supply of the market, which usually has a suppressive effect on sugar prices. For example, in July 2024, imports of 420,000 tons significantly increased the supply of the Chinese market. However, this effect may be offset by high import costs, keeping sugar prices at relatively high levels.
•International market volatility
One of the reasons for the surge in sugar prices in 2023 is high international sugar prices and reduced imports. At the beginning of 2024, the fluctuation of import volumes reflects the market's sensitive reaction to price changes. Domestic sugar prices remained high during the trough period from March to June, and as imports rebound in July, sugar prices are likely to be suppressed in the coming months, but the decline may be limited.
The fluctuation of import volume has a complex impact on China's sugar prices, and it is necessary to comprehensively consider factors such as the international market, import costs and domestic demand. Through accurate market strategies and timely data monitoring, participants are better able to respond to sugar price fluctuations and seize market opportunities.
Data source: CCGD
More information can be found at CCM Sweetener China Monthly News.
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